Aleksandr Lukashenko is and has long been under pressure at home. Should Lukashenko lose control there have already been large pro Ukrainian demonstrations in Minsk Putin risks having to delegate military resources to save his subordinate, Other proposals include a new Marshall Plan to resurrect the Russian economy and invite a new Russia into the European heat. Western actors must then convey very clearly what is needed for sanctions to be lifted, and offer carrots that give Russian elites and or the Russian population incentives to push Putin in such a direction if his goals are not absolute In parallel with the war becoming more brutal.
We nevertheless see the contours of a somewhat more moderate rhetoric from Putin s closest circle, which potentiallycan pave the way for negotiated solutions. Russia, for example, has gone from demanding unconditional Ukrainian capitulation before negotiations, to allegedly entering into whatsapp mobile number list negotiations without conditions. Defense Minister Shoigu also recently explained that the military special operation would continue until Russia had achieved its goals of demilitarizing and de Nazifying Ukraine, and protecting Russia from a threat created by Western countries.
Where these goals initially seem to imply regime replacement and Ukraine declaring neutrality, Putin still has plenty of room to declare these goals achieved to a Russian audience without the outcome having to be Ukrainian regime change. After Foreign Minister Lavrov explained that Russia was forced to invade Ukraine to prevent the latter from developing nuclear weapons, it is conceivable, for example, that a solution to a fictitious problem is Ukrainian promises not to acquire such. This could possibly be spun as a victory for Russian diplomacy and military power for a domestic audience.